Google Quantum Machines Could Crack Bitcoin Encryption in Minutes
Google Quantum AI has revealed that quantum computers could break cryptocurrency encryption far faster than expected. Specifically, the research suggests that cracking the cryptography behind Bitcoin and Ethereum may require significantly fewer resources.
According to the study, fewer than 500,000 physical qubits could break the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA). Previously, experts estimated that around 10 million qubits would be necessary. Therefore, this marks a major shift in understanding quantum capabilities. Using Shor’s algorithm, a powerful quantum system could extract a private key in about nine minutes. Consequently, attackers could potentially intercept a transaction before confirmation, which typically takes around ten minutes.
Research Signals Urgency for Transition
Although the findings raise concerns, researchers avoided releasing sensitive attack details. Instead, they shared a zero-knowledge proof so experts can verify the results without exposing vulnerabilities. Additionally, the study outlines two circuit designs that operate within reduced qubit requirements.
At the same time, the research highlights long-term risks to stored assets. Approximately 6.9 million BTC remain vulnerable due to exposed public keys. Furthermore, protocol updates like Taproot have increased on-chain key visibility, which may expand the risk over time.
Justin Drake said there is “at least a 10% chance that by 2032, a quantum computer could recover a secp256k1 ECDSA private key from an exposed public key,” adding that “now is undoubtedly the time to start preparing”. Analysts from Bitfinex said the threat represents “a real engineering challenge for the cryptocurrency sector, but it is far from an existential danger in its current state,” noting that Bitcoin’s cryptographic foundations “were always recognized to have a limited lifespan”.
Industry Prepares for Post-Quantum Era
In response, Google has set a 2029 target to transition its systems to post-quantum cryptography. Meanwhile, the research encourages the broader blockchain ecosystem to act quickly. For instance, experts recommend adopting quantum-resistant algorithms, rotating keys, and avoiding public key reuse.
Although fully capable quantum computers remain years away, the timeline is shrinking. As a result, what once seemed like a distant threat now demands immediate attention. Therefore, the industry must begin preparing now to safeguard future transactions and stored assets.
