Betting that the crypto winter is getting closer to thawing is encouraged by the likelihood of a less combative Federal Reserve. After a nearly 9 percent increase the day before, when the Fed increased rates by 75 basis points for a second month, Bitcoin increased by as much as 2.9 percent on Thursday in Asia, indicating that the rate of tightening will eventually slow down.
The largest token was trading at $23,090 as of 1:25 p.m. in Singapore. So-called altcoins made bigger gains: Ether rose as much as 4.7% and Polkadot 9.3%.
Swaps tied to Fed meeting dates indicate markets anticipate a peak in borrowing costs around year-end and rate cuts in 2023 — which would be a friendlier backdrop for digital assets given they rely on the elixir of liquidity.
“The FOMC decision provided optimism that the end of tightening is in sight and that triggered a nice rally for risky assets that helped elevate cryptos,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst for the Americas at Oanda.
At the same time, similar bouts of post-Fed investor optimism in May and June quickly faded. Plenty of prognosticators remain skeptical the US central bank can ease up materially given inflation is the highest in a generation.
The potential for more blowups among crypto lenders and investors as well as harsher regulatory scrutiny following this year’s rout are among the other risks for virtual coins. Bitcoin has slumped 50% in 2022.
With the next Fed meeting not until September, “there may be some room for upside now,” said Mikkel Mørch, executive director at digital asset investment fund ARK36. But “that will be contingent on the strength of the dollar and the wider macro environment,” he said.
