According to a report by Goldman Sachs, the increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) technology has the potential to raise labour productivity and boost global economic growth. The report suggests that a combination of significant cost savings in labour, new job creation, and higher productivity for non-displaced workers could lead to a productivity boom, raising economic growth substantially. In fact, widespread adoption of AI technology could eventually boost global annual gross domestic product (GDP) by 7% in the 10 years after at least half of companies worldwide use AI technology. The bank estimates that AI adoption could raise global annual productivity growth by 1.4 percentage points over a decade.
The global AI market is projected to surpass $1.7 trillion in 2030, up from $93.5 billion in 2021, expanding at a compound annual growth rate of more than 38%, according to data from Grand View Research.
The report also explores whether a rapid acceleration in task automation will drive labour cost savings and raise productivity. The report estimates that 18% of work globally could be automated by AI, with a bigger impact on developed than emerging markets. In the US, economists estimate that “generative AI” may raise labour productivity by 1.5 percentage points per year over a decade following widespread adoption.
However, the report also notes that the boost “could be much smaller or larger depending on the difficulty level of tasks AI will be able to perform and how many jobs are ultimately automated”. In the US, about two-thirds of occupations are exposed to some degree of automation by AI, with most having a significant – but partial – share of their workload (25-50%) that can be replaced by AI. Sectors most at risk include administrative (46%) and legal (44%) professions, while physically intensive professions such as construction and maintenance have low exposure. Globally, generative AI could cost the world the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs to automation across major economies, the report indicated.
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